With 99% of votes counted, results are too close to call but one thing is sure: far-right CHEGA has doubled its vote share.
With 99% of votes counted, a hung parliament looms in Portugal.
The Democratic Alliance – an electoral platform made up of the center-right Social Democratic party (PSD) and two smaller conservative parties – is currently ahead with 29.49% of the vote (winning 79 seats), followed by the Socialist party on 28.66% (77 seats), but the results are still too close to call. And they won't be clear until all the votes are counted, which may still take a few days.
So, while we wait, we’ve picked out some of the biggest winners and losers from the election results so far.
WINNERS
TURNOUT: at the end of the night, the abstention rate stood at 33.8%, the lowest figure since 1995. The abstention figures may even be lower after March 20, when the votes of the portuguese abroad will be added. Earlier this month, the European Data Journalism Network reported that Portugal is among the European countries with lowest turnout for Government elections. In the 2019 and 2022 legislative elections, five in ten Portuguese voters did not go to the polls, suggesting a general trend towards increased abstention rates generally attributed to inequality, low salaries and lower levels of education. That trend has now been broked.
CHEGA: The far-right will take third place, raising its vote share from 7.2% (12 seats) in 2022 to 18.6% now. Latest reports indicate that the party has passed one million votes, electing 37 deputies thus far. It is a huge surge for the populist, far-right party, which was founded five years ago by André Ventura, a former TV football pundit. The party broke through in the 2019 election, attracting 1.3% of the vote and gaining its first MP in Portugal’s 230-seat assembly. With this result, CHEGA is poised to act as kingmaker to a prospective right-wing Government.
LIVRE: Pro-European, ecosocialist party elected two MPs so far (one in Lisbon and the other one in Porto), ensuring that it will form a parliamentary group for the first time. Founded in 2014 by Rui Tavares, who began his political career in the Left Bloc, first elected an MP in 2019. But that MP, Joacine Katar Moreira, later abandoned the party and stayed as non-attached Member. In 2022, it won 1,28% of the vote and again elected one MP (Rui Tavares).
IL: Defying predictions, and competing in an increasingly crowded right-wing field, the Liberals (IL) have managed to keep their vote share intact from 2022 (4,9%, 8 seats) and will probably finish fourth again. They also managed to expand their electoral appeal geographically, winning a seat for the Aveiro district for the first time.
LEFT BLOC: The party was able to retain its parliamentary representation (5 MPs) and roughly keep its vote share (4,4% in 2022).
LOSERS:
AD: After 8 years of Socialist rule and a corruption probe that tainted António Costa's government, the moderate right was expected to win the elections confortably. Polls more or less predicted it would, giving it an increasing lead as election day approached. But, in the end, it failed to win an expressive victory and is currently fighting neck and neck with the Socialist for the first place both in terms of votes and seats. Following the Socialists' concession, the AD is set to take office, but this may well turn out to be a poisoned gift without a working majority in Parliament.
PS: The Socialists seem poised to achieve the worst result since 2011, when PM José Sócrates was forced to resign amid Portugal's bailout request. The PS's leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, last night conceded defeat, saying that, while the AD's victory margin is slim, the combined size of the center right and far right make a left-wing government impossible. He also said that the party will lead the opposition and that it has "an obligation to reconcile itself with the Portuguese".
CDU: The Communists elected only three MPs, only half of what they elected in 2022 - and that was already a bad result."The CDU's result of reducing its parliamentary representation by a percentage below what we achieved two years ago is a negative development," recognised the party's General Secretary, Paulo Raimundo. However, he continued, "it is still an important expression of resistance".